Makers and takers
A strong commitment
Of the finance industry
Leaves us all in debt
Wealth of Humans
Work is what you want
The robots are what you want
And yet we all wait
Wednesday, May 3, 2017
No Such Thing as Complacency: On Cowen
Friends
Romans
Countrymen!
I come to praise Tyler Cowen, not to bury him.
I don’t want to bury anyone, really. But the praise will be
faint.
I like Tyler. He’s good on the blogs. He’s good on the
Twitter.
I just think he’s wrong a lot. And in his book, he
over-reaches his thesis.
I’m not sure if this is a failure of me as a reader or of
Tyler as a writer, but I’m not really sure who falls in the circle of his “Complacent
Class”.
The whole thing reads as someone who decided on a thesis and
then tried to marshal some evidence to support it. It didn’t sell me. But that
is not to say that the things he looks at are not a problem of cultural and
economic dynamism. What I worry about is the direction of power and the decisions
that are made.
For example: Tyler looks at the fact that fewer people are
moving over time. This might be a problem. But is it because people are complacent?
Or is it because people have fuller information. The Joads went to California
because they thought that there were jobs there. They were wrong.
There have been some regional booms in my lifetime. Land is
cheap in the south and so are taxes so some people go there. But there’s no
great migration because people are leaving sharecropping for manufacturing work.
Not sure that that represents any kind of Complacency.
And this is in the face of Occupy and Ferguson and Baltimore
and the Women’s marches in response to Trump. It’s too clean, and feels so
wrong.
Thursday, April 6, 2017
J. Edgar Mihelic Quoted in the Wall Street Journal
I have to share this because it is so....random. Journalist found a tweet I made about regretting not refinancing my house and used me as an example for a larger piece about the Fed's asset purchases. A lot of our conversation was cut, but I have to share a line I liked that did get cut: "People of my generation don't know how to be adults in a raising rate environment".
Link is to Morningstar, but was originally in the Journal.
The Fed expects to buy $18 billion of agency mortgage-backed
securities in the month ending next Wednesday. That is less than half
the amount it bought in the month ended right after the presidential
election, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,
and the smallest purchase since mid-2014.
Because the Fed is buying up less of the mortgage bonds currently in the market, in many ways monetary policy is already tightening on its own, some traders and analysts say. They add that the Fed could view it as a step toward shrinking its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, as it considers whether to begin selling some securities later in 2017 after years of stimulative bond buying.
At their policy meeting in March, Fed officials agreed that they would probably start shrinking their portfolio later in the year but didn't decide on key details of how to do it, minutes released Wednesday show.
The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that the Fed is formulating a strategy to start winding down its portfolio by slowing or stopping reinvestments of maturing debt, perhaps after raising short-term interest rates two more times this year. The minutes of the Fed's latest meeting, due out Wednesday, may provide more clues about the central bank's latest thinking.
"From my perspective at least, it is sensible to begin thinking now about balance-sheet moves," Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo said in a CNBC interview on Wednesday, his last day at the central bank.
The Fed's holdings of agency MBS is likely to be a key area of consideration, given that the Fed holds nearly $1.8 trillion of the debt, or more than 40% of its holdings of securities scooped up through its open market purchase program, New York Fed data show.
Such securities are made up of pools of mortgages, and are backed by payments on those home loans. They are issued by government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, and are seen by many investors as high-grade fixed-income instruments due partly to the notion of an implicit government guarantee, which reduces the risk.
Now, the pace at which those bonds are maturing is being slowed down by the drop-off in refinancing.
Last summer, around the time benchmark interest rates hit record lows, J. Edgar Mihelic, a 35-year-old accountant at a nonprofit, considered refinancing the 30-year mortgage on his Cape Cod-style brick home in Brookfield, Ill.
But he didn't move fast enough. Following the U.S. presidential election, mortgage rates jumped as investors bet on faster economic growth and higher inflation once Donald Trump took office. An average fixed-rate 30-year mortgage came with an annual interest rate of about 4.3% this week, versus 3.5% about a month before the election, according to Bankrate.com.
"I waited around too long," Mr. Mihelic said. Though he had thought about getting a new 15-year mortgage to replace his current one, he stuck with his current mortgage, taken out in the spring of 2013 with an annual interest rate of 3.65%.
Refinances are expected to have made up 41% of total mortgage originations in the first three months of the year, down from 51% in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That share is forecast to drop to 28% in the second quarter and 26% in the third.
When refinancing slows down, so does the rate at which mortgage bonds mature, because less mortgage principal is flowing directly back to bondholders in the form of so-called prepayments. That is already hitting the Fed's portfolio of mortgage bonds, where the one-month annualized rate of paydown on the portfolio slowed to 15% at the end of February, down from 28% at the end of July, according to an analysis by FTN Financial.
The Fed in turn has less maturing bonds to reinvest. Many economists and investors say the Fed's purchase of bonds is what eases financing conditions, and slowing those purchases can signal to markets that it intends to tighten policy.
"They have already started tapering because of the nature of the reinvestments," said Walter Schmidt, a strategist at FTN Financial who focuses on the mortgage market.
To be sure, some argue that the act of holding debt on its balance sheet is a stronger easing measure -- and slowing reinvestments doesn't necessarily affect the size of the balance sheet.
But many analysts agree the purchases play an important role in how markets react. Bond yields shot up, for example, when the Fed signaled in 2013 that it could slow the pace of its quantitative easing program.
The slowing pace of purchases are already impacting the market, traders say. One measure showed the yield premium on a benchmark MBS security relative to the 10-year Treasury note reached 0.77 percentage point last week, up from 0.66 percentage point at the end of 2016, according to Michael Lorizio, senior trader at Manulife Asset Management. Some add there could be more pressure on the market.
"It is likely that we will see some spread widening in MBS bonds if we continue to see strong MBS issuance and slow prepayment speeds from the Fed's MBS portfolio," said Andrew Pace, a vice president at Performance Trust Capital Partners LLC, a fixed-income trading firm, in an email.
Still, bond traders say a big selloff is likely to attract fresh buyers which in turn could keep a lid on how wide the yield premiums rise. And the current impact of slowing prepayments could mean there is less of an impact later on when reinvestments stop.
"The last thing the Fed wants to do is to disrupt the mortgage market," and create a negative feedback loop into the broader economy, said James Sarni, managing principal at Payden & Rygel Investment Management.
Write to Ben Eisen at ben.eisen@wsj.com and Min Zeng at min.zeng@wsj.com
April 05, 2017 17:06 ET (21:06 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Link is to Morningstar, but was originally in the Journal.
By Ben Eisen and Min ZengThe Federal Reserve has been buying up fewer mortgage bonds in recent months thanks to a flameout of the American refinancing boom, one factor that economists say is likely to help shape Fed officials' thinking as they consider shrinking their giant bond portfolio.
Because the Fed is buying up less of the mortgage bonds currently in the market, in many ways monetary policy is already tightening on its own, some traders and analysts say. They add that the Fed could view it as a step toward shrinking its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, as it considers whether to begin selling some securities later in 2017 after years of stimulative bond buying.
At their policy meeting in March, Fed officials agreed that they would probably start shrinking their portfolio later in the year but didn't decide on key details of how to do it, minutes released Wednesday show.
The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that the Fed is formulating a strategy to start winding down its portfolio by slowing or stopping reinvestments of maturing debt, perhaps after raising short-term interest rates two more times this year. The minutes of the Fed's latest meeting, due out Wednesday, may provide more clues about the central bank's latest thinking.
"From my perspective at least, it is sensible to begin thinking now about balance-sheet moves," Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo said in a CNBC interview on Wednesday, his last day at the central bank.
The Fed's holdings of agency MBS is likely to be a key area of consideration, given that the Fed holds nearly $1.8 trillion of the debt, or more than 40% of its holdings of securities scooped up through its open market purchase program, New York Fed data show.
Such securities are made up of pools of mortgages, and are backed by payments on those home loans. They are issued by government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, and are seen by many investors as high-grade fixed-income instruments due partly to the notion of an implicit government guarantee, which reduces the risk.
Now, the pace at which those bonds are maturing is being slowed down by the drop-off in refinancing.
Last summer, around the time benchmark interest rates hit record lows, J. Edgar Mihelic, a 35-year-old accountant at a nonprofit, considered refinancing the 30-year mortgage on his Cape Cod-style brick home in Brookfield, Ill.
But he didn't move fast enough. Following the U.S. presidential election, mortgage rates jumped as investors bet on faster economic growth and higher inflation once Donald Trump took office. An average fixed-rate 30-year mortgage came with an annual interest rate of about 4.3% this week, versus 3.5% about a month before the election, according to Bankrate.com.
"I waited around too long," Mr. Mihelic said. Though he had thought about getting a new 15-year mortgage to replace his current one, he stuck with his current mortgage, taken out in the spring of 2013 with an annual interest rate of 3.65%.
Refinances are expected to have made up 41% of total mortgage originations in the first three months of the year, down from 51% in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That share is forecast to drop to 28% in the second quarter and 26% in the third.
When refinancing slows down, so does the rate at which mortgage bonds mature, because less mortgage principal is flowing directly back to bondholders in the form of so-called prepayments. That is already hitting the Fed's portfolio of mortgage bonds, where the one-month annualized rate of paydown on the portfolio slowed to 15% at the end of February, down from 28% at the end of July, according to an analysis by FTN Financial.
The Fed in turn has less maturing bonds to reinvest. Many economists and investors say the Fed's purchase of bonds is what eases financing conditions, and slowing those purchases can signal to markets that it intends to tighten policy.
"They have already started tapering because of the nature of the reinvestments," said Walter Schmidt, a strategist at FTN Financial who focuses on the mortgage market.
To be sure, some argue that the act of holding debt on its balance sheet is a stronger easing measure -- and slowing reinvestments doesn't necessarily affect the size of the balance sheet.
But many analysts agree the purchases play an important role in how markets react. Bond yields shot up, for example, when the Fed signaled in 2013 that it could slow the pace of its quantitative easing program.
The slowing pace of purchases are already impacting the market, traders say. One measure showed the yield premium on a benchmark MBS security relative to the 10-year Treasury note reached 0.77 percentage point last week, up from 0.66 percentage point at the end of 2016, according to Michael Lorizio, senior trader at Manulife Asset Management. Some add there could be more pressure on the market.
"It is likely that we will see some spread widening in MBS bonds if we continue to see strong MBS issuance and slow prepayment speeds from the Fed's MBS portfolio," said Andrew Pace, a vice president at Performance Trust Capital Partners LLC, a fixed-income trading firm, in an email.
Still, bond traders say a big selloff is likely to attract fresh buyers which in turn could keep a lid on how wide the yield premiums rise. And the current impact of slowing prepayments could mean there is less of an impact later on when reinvestments stop.
"The last thing the Fed wants to do is to disrupt the mortgage market," and create a negative feedback loop into the broader economy, said James Sarni, managing principal at Payden & Rygel Investment Management.
Write to Ben Eisen at ben.eisen@wsj.com and Min Zeng at min.zeng@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 05, 2017 17:06 ET (21:06 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Tuesday, April 4, 2017
Thank You, Brookfield
Well Friends, it looks like fortune wasn’t on my side tonight.
No matter. I can’t claim that it is not a personal disappointment, this loss.
But what I do know, and knew all along, was that there was going to be someone who cared deeply about the library and the future of Brookfield who would not get enough votes.
There are no losers here, the winner is the Village of Brookfield and the current and future residents who will have a strong board to support them and push their vision for growth.
For all of you who voted for me, I thank you for the support. It means a lot. And I have a feeling that for better or worse, you haven’t heard the last from me.
Thank you so much,
J. Edgar Mihelic
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