I liked numbers and economics, and Lewis is a great
storyteller, so this book is recommended for lay readers of both the sporty and
nerdy persuasions.
Reading this book, however, made me think of the Lucas
critique: “ Given that the structure of an econometric model consists of
optimal decision rules of economic agents, and that optimal decision rules vary
systematically with changes in the structure of series relevant to the decision
maker, it follows that any change in policy will systematically alter the
structure of econometric models.”
Basically, there was a very small window where changing the
paradigm on what is important in a baseball player and his statistics would
give a team an advantage on the field.
Unlike the market twhere you have 250 trading days a year, you only have
one draft a year, so there is a chance that the underdog can win.
The Oakland baseball organization had some success with this
smarts and analytics over just looking at guys.
But they didn’t win the ultimate prize, and then a more powerful organization
came and took the methods and leveraged their money plus the analytics into a
championship. Once this happened, the
methods have spread and become utilized much more widely so there is no longer
an edge to looking at a player’s defensive WAR because everyone looks at that
and it is discussed in the sports pages.
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