Should have linked http://www.bradford-delong.com/2016/06/procrastinating-on-june-8-2016.html earlier.
Delong picked up my post on Trekonomics and it is now my third most visited post. Thanks for the traffic, Brad.
Friday, June 17, 2016
Wednesday, June 8, 2016
Qucik Thought on the US Election
Liberal animus towards the left is a relic of the cold war. The left
had to draw a bright line between its policies and those that could be
painted in any way as "communist". This is why Sanders is so appealing
to the younger generations. Capitalism in its neoliberal suits since 80s
Reaganomics, Thatcherism and TINA, and the IMF / World Bank "Washington
Consensus" has failed so many people several times the youth are
looking for answers that are not available to Boomers still snake bitten
by reflexive anti-communism.
But the cold war's over. We won. We can stop with the rhetoric and instead look for answers that solve the problems for everyone. Sanders may have lost (or is still walking the precipice) but hopefully this is not a flash in the pan, but a coming to consciousness for many.
Edgar 2020.
But the cold war's over. We won. We can stop with the rhetoric and instead look for answers that solve the problems for everyone. Sanders may have lost (or is still walking the precipice) but hopefully this is not a flash in the pan, but a coming to consciousness for many.
Edgar 2020.
Monday, June 6, 2016
Post-Scarcity Thinking: Manu Saadia's "Trekonomics"
Saadia’s “Trekonomics” is one of the most interesting books
I have read in a while. I like it because it give context to the post scarcity economics
that we are facing through something that is culturally familiar – the world
Gene Roddenberry created and that was extended off of his work in the world of
Star Trek. It is almost as if it already happened, though we know the world of
Trek to be in the future.
That’s not entirely true. There is much of the world of Trek
that is left out. The original series gets short shrift, as do the more recent
movies. The focus in this book is that world of the next generation and deep
space nine. Not that any of that matters for me. I am personally a nerd of the
type that demographically missed out Trek. When I was a kid, the original
series was old news, and the TNG was out but it was weird because though there
were new episodes, they would appear sporadically – sometimes showing on some
later in the dial channel too late at night. When I caught them, there was no
sense of any continuity within the series. Missing out then meant that the
later shows that had better network backing also missed my interest because
there was so much backstory I missed I didn’t feel like getting back into the
mythos. (Also why the only comic books I ever really got into were Archie – no real
continuity needed there).
Ultimately, none of that matters. You can read and enjoy
Trekonomics as I did even with minimal background because there is a lot of
Trek that is part of the cultural currency that comes with growing up connected
to pop culture in the western world that it is just part of the air you
breathe. For example, I have never seen any of the Godfather movies, in spite
of living with an Italian guy who wished he was mobbed up, but I bet that if I
sat down and watched them, there would be very few surprises for me. So there
is the cultural currency, and then there is the part where Saadia takes the
world and uses it to leverage thought on what a world will look like when there
is abundance for all.
Overall, it works very well, but I cannot think of many
analogues to compare the book to. When I was reading it, it made me think of
the academic papers in the humanities – where the paper is basically using a
text and some sort of philosophy to better understand both (at the best of the
papers) or just using a philosophy to try to explicate a text. However, this is
different because the text in this case is the economics and the philosophy is
that of Trek – more or less an inversion of the standard practice.
Post scarcity in the Trek world is defined by the replicator
– it makes its first appearance in TNG, so that is why the focus is on that
series for the book. Saadia is much more of a techno-optimist than I am,
because even though he addresses it in the book, I feel that the rise of the
robots, big data thing that we are going through right now has better chances
of being SkyNet than it does United Federation of Planets. I could be wrong
though, and we have to think of this as a linear process. There is no one leap
from widespread want to universal abundance. It is a linear process, and
importantly it is about distribution of resources more than it is about the
absolute availability of resources. What the world of Trekonomics offers us is
a blueprint of something to work towards as something concrete. There are
enough theories and ideologies that exist critiquing the current order –
perhaps the point is not to critique, but to change things. I would say that this
book could help start a conversation about how we get from here to there.
Sunday, May 22, 2016
The New Economy is Poison: On Dan Lyons's "Disrupted"
I first came across this book as an excerpt somewhere on the
on the internet. I forget where, or else I would claim it loudly and give support
to the publication, lord knows that they all need the traffic. I ended up
reading this quickly, but it wasn’t an easy read. Basically, if you have ever
had one of those sorts of jobs where you had anxiety about going in every day then
this will give you great memories of that as your read Lyons and his spot-on
descriptions of his job. Lyons was hired onto HubSpot, a company that I’m still
not sure exactly what they do after reading the book. He was a seasoned
reporter but had the unfortunate thing of being a seasoned reporter in a time
where deep-learning computers will soon be writing all of our news and until
then you can hire an Ivy Grad for next to nothing to create the content you
need.
What I did learn about HubSpot was that it was very poorly
run and seems like a pyramid scheme. I don’t know how representative it is of
the tech scene in a more generalized way, but it does show the folly of this
thing we do where we fetishize the young founders and VCs throw money at them
before they really have a sense of what it means to be a leader and to manage people
and create a good product for consumers. Nevertheless, maybe I’m biased. There
are founders who are able to scale up and create lasting businesses. However,
my supposition is that for every Jobs, Zuckerberg, or Gates there are
infinitely more people like these clowns. I think I remember seeing a stat that
like 97% of the startups those venture capitals people invest in don’t end up
making money for the investors. I’d bet HubSpot is on the losing end of that.
It does seem though that there is a way for the founders to cash out even if
the business is horrible - just hold on long enough for the IPO. This process
is chronicled here in disrupted.
One funny thing is that the whole book is horrible PR for
the company. Very few people come off as sympathetic, and that may just be that
the whole experience biased Lyons against the people. What is funnier though is
the postscript. After 200 pages of telling how bad this company is, he then
tells of what they tried to do during the process of writing the book to avoid
all this bad press – to the point of hacking Lyons’s computer and even going through
his trash.
Basically, it comes down to this. The new economy is horrible
because it is putting out old-line professionals who have age and experience. However,
you can’t sell out and work for them because the people inside of them are all
horrible people. I hope that it is less black and white than that, but I hope I
never have to find out. Unless I’m a founder, and VCs want to throw money at
me.
The Future is in Constant Creation: Alex Ross and "The Industries of the Future"
I have a feeling that right now you can see the robots
everywhere but the productivity figures.
Since I am still relatively early in my career, I am trying
to be smart and position myself in the best way to mitigate any possible
redundancy – my wife likes to joke about the poor people who were synergies
away. I don’t want that to happen to me. The best outcome would be for some
sort of preemptive national legislation to make better the plight of people who
have or will be made redundant. Thankfully, it is now threatening the educated
classes, so people are starting to look at what can be done to make capitalism
keep working. I have no specific answer, since even the advice you get to future-proof
yourself keeps changing. It used to be learning Chinese. Then it was learn to
code. I don’t know what the 2020s will bring, but I’ll be pretty red in the
face when I have spent a good chunk of time learning to code robots in mandarin
and that was the wrong path to have taken. Ah, they’ll say in their thinkpieces
and explainers – you should have learned about Pre-Columbian Aztec Philosophy,
that’s where the money is.
So as I said, since mechanization is now threatening the livelihoods
of people who have put in time learning non-manual skills, several books have
popped up looking at what the future will look like. Now we all know the
difficulty of making predictions, especially about the future, several authors have
taken stabs at it. I really liked Ford’s “Rise of the Robots,” and have glommed
onto some more left-wing economist’s outputs, both Reich and Stiglitz have put
books out in the past year both looking at the way the economy works and who it
works for and how to make it work better for everyone. Most of these books
exist on a spectrum from the future is awesome to the future is scary. Ross
stands more on the future is awesome side. The book covers a lot of ground, and
I was calling it in my head a sort of establishment gee-wiz sort of book, where
there is a lot of cool stuff that we will see but ignoring for the most part
the side of the coin where the people that will get to see these changes are
not just consumers, but somehow must earn a living. This is weird to me since a
large part of the framing is talking about the crew on one of his first jobs
cleaning up after concerts as a college student in West Virginia. There are
lines in here with huge implications that isn’t explored. For example, in looking
at the future of bitcoin, he talks about how there may come a day when there are
only four or five currencies. I think the current issues in the Eurozone can
show a casual observer what a horrible idea that is. Ultimately, the book
suffers because it tries to be too many things, exploring a lot at the higher
surface levels but not getting into implications of how this technology will
play out socially, economically, and politically. That was the strength of Ford’s
book, where he looked at one version of the future and put a policy prescription
to it, no matter how impossible it seems to get a UBI going.
Friday, April 29, 2016
Reflections on Concordia University College of Business in River Forest Illinois
So, I've just about graduated with my MBA. The hoops are jumped through, and I will walk next weekend and graduate for the first time in 12 years. Someone starting first grade when I graduated from WVU will have their own ceremony this year. I had a good experience overall. The professors were of high quality, I learned a lot, and my peers pushed and challenged me. Though I am still a bit mad that I didn't get voted an academic honor (why do they vote on those - I had all A's (and one minus, which they weigh, so my GPA was a 3.97 - boo)), I'll most likely reflect positively on the experience as that one bit fades. Below is a response to a couple of prompts sent to me by the university for a promotional video that I'm not sure I'l ever film since I sent some angry emails regarding the above situation.
What do you value most about the business education that you cultivated, earned and received at Concordia University Chicago’s College of Business?
I came to Concordia for many reasons, and there are as many reasons for pursuing business education as there are students, if not even more than that.
There is a great breadth the classes you get to take, but what I really liked was the specialization classes. I have worked in a nonprofit agency for five years now, but the classes I took as part of the concentration in nonprofit management allowed me to gain greater perspective on both my own agency and to think of possible moves for my own career.
The classes, the professors, and my peers were of such a high quality that Concordia has to be the best value in terms of business schools for local professionals bar none. However, what I also really enjoyed was being able to work with peers from a diverse background. I was in work groups more than once with a foreign-born student and though it wasn’t always easy, I think that those situations are some of the ones where I had to think about myself and my own communication strategies and how we were going to work together with people from different backgrounds.
There’s so much more. I could go on and on about what drew me to the program and how it exceeded my expectations at every turn.
Describe a situation/story in which your business education helped you advance toward a goal you had set for yourself. This could be a new position, a project at work, a new role within your position an internship opportunity, etc.
One of the reasons I came to Concordia was that I needed more education to move up in my company. After undergraduate study in creative writing, I went to graduate school for English. Neither of those gave me the exact qualifications I needed in the face of the recession after 2008.
I was unemployed and subsequently went back to school and got certified for medical coding and billing. That led me to the organization I am now with. Nevertheless, without more education I would be stuck. Therefore, I mapped out a plan where I just kept going to school. I took basic business classes at Triton, and that helped me in my job, I was still at the same position I was when I started.
In talking to my boss, it became clear that I would not be able to move up until I gained more subject-area knowledge.
In the course of the last two years, I have learned so many things that have helped me be a more conscientious worker and better at my job and prepared to step into leadership roles. In fact, the interplay between what I have learned at Concordia and my own position has been so successful that I have been promoted twice in the last two years, ahead of the mental schedule I had set for myself. I’ve been in my current position for almost a year, and it is the one that I was hoping that I would be
considered for with the MBA finalized. I owe much of that success to the MBA program at Concordia.
Monday, April 18, 2016
Ted Rall’s “Bernie”
Of all the major party candidates in my lifetime, there has
been none who have come as close to my politics as he has. I voted for him in
my state’s primary. But I’m not passionate for him. I guess it’s the thing of
having to be pragmatic and running in the two-party system that makes me mad. The
electoral system is so rotten that even a sitting senator has to run within the
party system to get media coverage and that weird circular legitimacy. Where
you’re not important if you don’t have coverage and you can’t get coverage if
you’re not important.
And I like Ted Rall’s work, so this book is right up my
alley. Most of it is a biography of Bernard, but it starts out with a long
gloss on the history of politics for the last 40 years or so. Rall’s trying to
make the case towards someone like me, who is sympathetic but has doubts. Like
I said, I voted for Bernie, but I haven’t volunteered or give him any money.
Maybe I’m just being too cynical. Maybe this
will start a movement, or maybe the Republicans will win with Ted in the fall
and the Democratic insiders will make the argument that the party needs more
pre-surrenders on policy positons preferred by the far left.
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