Thursday, January 30, 2020

Learning From the Past: Ideas for Full Employment Now

One of the things that I have struggled with in my studies is in how we look at economic history and how we use that to guide policy for the current moment. Looking at history can give one pause, but it can also create hope for a better world. The hope comes not just from bright linings in current developments, however. Going back to recent economic history, we can trace the path from war to depression to war. By seeing how responses to a crisis were planned and how they played out, we can hopefully evaluate what worked and what did not work to learn from prior times because even if the sweep of history introduces new complicating factors each time, it often rhymes.

One broad period we can learn from is the developed countries in the middle of the twentieth century. What you see is that policy makers were aware that the demobilization after the First World War led to slow and uneven growth and had a direct effect on the events of the Second World War. (Keynes saw it by 1919, others took more time). What is amazing is that British policy makers were thinking of a way to reorder society while the allies were still fighting Hitler on the continent. One such illustration of that attitude was “Full Employment in a Free Society,” a report by Sir William Beveridge. In the summary of the larger report, he makes a claim for three strong needs, one for peace, one for a job when you can work, and a need to have income support when you cannot work (1). The focus in the essay is the problem of unemployment, which for Beveridge is not just an economic problem, but also a moral issue for the “hatred and fear which it breeds” (6). The diagnosis of unemployment is one that focuses on spending through the business cycle, in that it is uneven and unpredictable and ultimately in the aggregate average just too low (7), too concentrated in certain cities ( 8), and in the British case too focused on international trade (9). To cure the ill of unemployment, Beveridge suggest that the answer is to always make sure that the demand for workers outpaces the number of people available to work (10), or “Jobs rather than men should wait” (12). 

Here it is easy to dismiss the idea. Of course, it would be nice if people all had jobs that took into consideration of their fundamental rights. However, Beveridge had a recent and valid comparison. The war itself showed that the lump of labor fallacy was not true. If the state wanted to bring everyone into the labor force and supply them with productive activity, they had the ability to come and do their job to defeat fascism, as “The demand for man-power in total war is unsatiated, and insatiable” (15). Just as in war there is always work that is undone, so the same follows in peacetime. In the good times and the bad, the lack in the economy is not want, but the “lack of purchasing power” (16). 

How do we do this according to Beveridge? We cannot rely entirely on the state to do it. We need to make sure that it is “a function of the state in future to ensure adequate total outlay and by consequence to protect its citizens against mass unemployment” in the same way that it is the state’s responsibility to protect the citizens from physical violence (20). Beveridge is at pains to point out that this does not mean full state control as in the Soviet Union but through a combination of encouraging consumption, added public spending, or even developing exports (21).  What Beveridge proposes in his essay is a long-term plan to reorganize society so that it is more equitable to everyone in society and to eliminate as much suffering and want as possible through the agent of state policy. It is prioritizing the wants and needs of everyone - planning as a social tool and an ongoing process, where the budget is not just about taxes, but how to manage the available labor, a “Human Budget” that looks at the resources available (26). Importantly, the vision outlined in the report is one that is proactive, aiming for “continuous steady expansion” (32) and not reactive to the business cycle, where society, “demands better houses and transport and light and power and schools and hospitals, without waiting for the opportunity when business men cannot make profits by selling less important things. Public outlay should be looked on as a means of meeting collectively urgent national needs, not as a gap-filling device” (35).

We can use this period as something to look back to as a guide for our policymaking. The economy was hot but there was a transition in the air. The memory of Depression was not too far away. In the postwar time, the economy in our imaginations became personified by the early television sitcom. There were jobs available for people to go to from their homogeneous suburb. These were jobs where one job could support a whole family and the expected leisure activities of that family while in the domestic sphere the wife helped raise the kids. It was the payoff of the struggle against fascism, and even if the red menace loomed over the oceans, the American Way was the best way as the US was the factory to the world that was rebuilding itself from the rubble of the Second World War or trying to create itself from the shadow of the colonial powers. We call this time the Golden Age of Capitalism, and the French call it Les Trente Glorieuses, because this was a time when capitalism just without trouble worked. The planning of the war years worked and the transition on both sides of the Atlantic was successful in that the depression was not entered into again when peace came. 

The thing about that is that if you start to look at the history of the time, it was not all Leave It to Beaver monochrome. This golden age existed in conflict with a lot of uncertainty and distrust towards the prevailing order. In 1954, the Supreme Court had to tell the states that separate was not equal and we are still fighting that battle today. Women who were demobilized from their role as the prime movers on the home front during the war felt anger and disenchantment from being marginalized, and we saw the rise of postwar feminism represented first in authors like Simone de Beauvoir to Betty Friedan through Gloria Steinem. Even the winners of the postwar expansion, the straight white males, saw pushback against the created norms, as the fiction of John Ford and a raft of midcentury male writes will illustrate, as well as the more systemic evaluations of the culture like C. Wright Mills’ White Collar or Riesman’s The Lonely Crowd show. In addition, we can easily find the cultural and economic dropouts from the Beatniks to the Hippies to see there was an undercurrent of disenchantment when things were finally working.

I play with this dialectic in my mind because for my entire life, the economic and political landscape has moved. My father grew up in a world where there was a larger manufacturing base with long-tenured employees who would then retire on a pension from that company, but there was some class conflict but the unions and the corporations had an uneasy truce for the most part. My generation has seen jobs casualised and society atomized in a way that would astonish Riesman. We are 20 years past Putnam’s coining the idea of “Bowling Alone,” and social media has made this anomie even worse. Thankfully, there has been a political reaction to this. Unfortunately, the strongest reaction that has been successful so far is the movement to isolationist populism that is represented from the Tea Party movement through to the election of Trump. What gives me hope is that there has been a reaction from the left that started with the bank bailouts and opened the way from Occupy Wall Street through to the Sanders campaigns in 2016 and 2020. The pendulum has been pushed far enough that there is now some push back to the idea that the rich have earned the just deserts and anyone struggling are just losers who deserve these struggles. 

Reading the summary of Beveridge’s report gives me a bittersweet feeling. In the darkest period of Europe’s 20th Century, policymakers were able to look forward and embrace ideas of equity and lack of want and realize that in the fight against fascism there had to be a fight for something as well. The report makes it clear that it is not a call for socialism but leaves it open as a potential path. The amazing thing from my vantage point is that they were ever able to implement any of it at all. America had a more paternalistic capitalism than we do now, but the welfare state then was more embedded in the corporations so that it was an ideal and never universalized. To call for policies outlined in the report would get you painted as a radical by bad faith actors – both then and now. “Radical” is true in the meaning the Beveridge looks at, in terms of getting at the root of the problem. I keep asking myself, if we must have some sort of capitalism, can we at least go back to that as an outline?  With the path we have taken and the lack of incentives and historical impetus to take us off the path, I am not optimistic but would be happy to be proven wrong. Perhaps we need not be looking backwards but forging a new way forward.

Works Cited:

Beveridge, William Henry Beveridge.  (1944). Full employment in a free society: a summary.  London:  The New Statesman and Nation, and Reynolds News

Friday, January 10, 2020

Science is a Process

There are varied pedagogical approaches to teaching science.
I have a weird CV so I might have perspective on this.
Teaching chemistry, you go from “the smallest piece of a substance that can exist was called the ‘atomos’ by the Greeks” to VSEPR theory at the intro level.
You show many different models that over the course of 200 years represented the best guess of the makeup of the atom and how these came together to make molecules and ions. Many of these still have explanatory power. The working model of the atom I use in my head is the solar system model, even knowing it is “incorrect”.
The thing is that most students will not go deeper. What you can illustrate through this process is that science is a process of discovery. Rutherford’s gold foil experiment? Wow, look at all the empty space in the atom! We even teach blind corners, like phlogiston. Heck, we as a society went from there to splitting the atom in 130 years or so. That is incredible progress.
I dropped chem, started writing poems, and was in a bad place professionally when the 2008 crisis hit. I went and started reading up on economics the same way I approached learning chemistry. I tried to stay abreast of the current debates in the blogs and papers, but I went to Smith and Ricardo and Marx and Mill and Bagehot to Hayek and Keynes and Schumpeter to get a grounding of what was going on.
Imagine my surprise when I first took a formal, undergraduate macro/micro sequence where none of those people’s thoughts featured. We started out with graphs and roles of money but it all existed as received wisdom. The same thing happened when I took the same sequence for my MBA. It was only when I took the sequence again at Roosevelt that any historical perspective was brought in.
This is the problem in that the intro classes are what the science is for a lot of students. It is a received set of axioms that are unchangeable even in the face of empirical evidence. “Look at my graph, of course the minimum wage increases unemployment,” they say. “It’s Economics 101”.
What this misses is the idea of economics as science and thus as a process of discovery. It is harder than in the “pure” sciences because humans are more erratic than atoms, but we do a disservice by not showing the process.

Friday, January 3, 2020

I'm Already Against the Next War


In 2002 to 2003, I stood in protest against the Iraq war.

Today I stand in defiance of escalation of the existing war with Iran. The minute we laid sanctions on that state, we started acts of war against innocent civilians.

Yesterday’s attack by our government on foreign soil is an unnecessary provocation in a volatile region.

Our job, as lovers of the best in humanity, is to find those who stand unequivocally against violence and to stand with them.

Here I am.

Thursday, December 19, 2019

Get a PhD: A Personal Essay Maybe Some Advice


It is now the middle of December. I have all of my applications finished. I applied to twelve schools, and I want to go to every single one.

Well, for the most part. I am still trying to get a straight answer from one school to see if they need official transcripts before they will consider my application.

I hope they do not. Everyone else wanted unofficial transcripts, and it was nice to just upload pdfs and be done. This was a bit different from the last time I applied to a bunch of graduate schools at once. Back in 2004-5, I had to get the packets together myself. Everything was on paper. It was probably easier for my letter writers since they just wrote one letter and ran it off. I think they gave me copies to put in the packet. I remember writing checks for the application fees and feeling like sending those packets off at the Morgantown post office was the scariest thing I had ever done.

It was the second scariest thing maybe since it was the second time. When I graduated, that year I applied to four MFA programs and did not get into even one. I actually got a thick envelope back from Oregon. However, it was about housing. I waited for the formal acceptance, but their next correspondence with me was a single page rejection letter.

I did not know what to do with myself then because graduate school was literally my only plan. I wanted to get out of Morgantown, and needed somewhere to go. Then I did not get in anywhere so I ended up keeping working at the same pizza place and drinking and hanging out with the same people (who are excellent, of course but that was not my bohemian dream).

In the ultimate irony, every time I saw someone from the department that year they would ask me why I did not apply to WVU since I most likely would have gotten. I did not apply to WVU because I did not want to be “stuck” in Morgantown, which seemed like an easy thing to do. In addition, of course, there I was stuck in Morgantown.

Also that was the year I got promoted to manager and then got hit by a car and spent a good chunk of that time high on Percocet, but it was also the longest time I went without drinking until I experimented with sobriety in 2016. That bit of clarity helped me as I applied to eight schools. I did not even retake the GRE since I didn’t have the money too, but it was worth the application fees for one last chance out the door I went for MA schools instead of the MFAs and got into at least half of the places I applied to, and got waitlisted at least one more. I think only KSU offered me any money so I went to KSU.

I went to Kansas State and met a bunch of cool people and fell in love and realized I did not want to go after the PhD in English. The path is long and then on the other end even in 2005 there was a horrible trend where you almost had zero possibility of getting a job. Something like one in eight people who start a PhD ended up with a tenure track position. Only 12%! I would say as a justification. I also knew smart people in the department who were acting as instructors. One thing I would do differently is I would have actually written my thesis but there were a number of factors that the incentives were not there. Therefore, I spent two years without a degree.

What I did do was realized I liked teaching so I got a teaching job and then lost it because teaching high schoolers is a vastly different experience than teaching college kids. Then the recession happened so I had a good period to figure out what I wanted to do and what interested me.

I got into economics, following the blogs, trying to read and understand the classics and figure out why the managers of the macro economy had fucked up so bad. You know why they fucked up? The economy is complicated; people hoard resources and those who hoard resources structure the power dynamics to justify and continue that hoarding; and the high princes of the economics caste thought they had the business cycle solved, so everything would be fine.

On the other hand, that is just one interpretation. Who know if the business cycle is “solvable” under capitalism? Maybe that is the appeal of Minsky – he just shows the mechanism of in what form it is broken, and you can go to Kindleberger to see that happen repeatedly.

The thing the crisis and the recession did to me was to see that I needed to figure out something practical. I spent a year and a half trying to figure out how to get back into teaching even though I had a bad experience with the high school kids – maybe only “half bad.” I liked teaching some of the times and coaching track was great. It was just that so many kids did not want to be there but were there so they acted out. Maybe I should have been teaching English and not chemistry. Weirdly at the time there was such slack in the job market that the schools were asking for teaching certificates for substitute positions, I applied for the Chicago Teaching Fellows (Twice!) and did not move past their cattle call interviews, and then I applied for a Master’s in Teaching at UIC and did not get in.

Not getting into UIC was a moment I took as a sign that teaching as a profession was not for me. As an aside, it is weird how ten years ago the programs were oversubscribed and now the profession is in crisis because people are not attracted in the programs. Young people are brought in and chewed up, there is an amazing amount of attrition because it is such a hard job and it is poorly paid. Put that up on the wall with social work – the intrinsic compensation of doing good is not always in balance with the difficulty of the job in its requirement that you remove the boundaries of who you are and totally subsume yourself in the profession.

What I did do was try to take this thing that had taken up a lot of my attention for the past couple of years and see if I could help. Economics was broken and I alone could fix it. I participated in the blogs and wrote Amazon reviews about the books I was reading. I gained confidence in the idea that I knew what I was talking about. I figured the next step was to formalize my education so I was in correspondence with a professor at UIC about what I could do to enroll in the Master’s program for economics. Talking about my experience and my transcripts, she suggested that the best path to make myself ready would to be enroll in some undergrad classes since I had not taken a single business or economics class at that point. There were two big problems with that. First was that I needed money for school and it is very hard to get loans for undergrad classes if you already had a bachelor’s degree and going back to school meant that I would forfeit my unemployment benefits. Therefore, I doubly could not afford it. In addition, there was the fact that my meeting with her happened to take place on the first day back for school in the fall semester. The earliest I could have started was January when I wanted to start now. Then-now, of course, not now-now.

Then this whole weird arc in my life happened. Trying to actively make changes was not working so I went with the flow on things and it led to some of the most successful professional times in my life so far. I saw an article about this job-training program the city was hosting called “Chicago Career Tech” that was aimed at people who had been middle-income professionals. I emailed the reporter because I could not find the information and he gave me a link. I applied and was interviewed and accepted. They said, “You’re on the medical coding and billing track”. Now, I never saw myself in this realm but my unemployment was about to run out and I was one step from begging restaurants to let me work the line so I said I’m going to do this and do my best. They sent me to DeVry and I got all A’s and I interned with the City and I interned with Community Support Services and after the program was over I took the national certification test and passed on the first try. I then started applying for jobs and was chagrined to find that there was not much out there. The best I found was the same job two different placement agencies were trying to place me at for twelve or thirteen bucks an hour, and it would have been a commute I would have to drive to because it was in the suburbs.
As a side note, this is when I was on Jeopardy, flying to LA by myself because we did not have any extra cash.

But then after a month or so my former supervisor at CSS put in her notice and the CFO, Andrea Finnegan, called me offering me my former supervisor’s job. In addition, at CSS I found a good professional home under the CFO. She encouraged me to learn within the department. Moreover, to take classes. I did a certificate program with Notre Dame to introduce me to nonprofit issues; I started to take those business classes, one at a time from community colleges. I did the practical thing and started talking classes for an MBA at a local college. Through this, I was moving up the ladder. I went from Billing Coordinator to Accounting Manager to Director of Finance in six years as I worked and took classes.

During the MBA, I had a list on a legal pad on what I wanted to do when I finished the program, from learning my bass better to getting a CPA. One of the things on the list was to get more involved with the community, so I started working with the local library in the campaign to pass a bond issue to build a new building. Things were going fine.

Then there was the winter of 2016-7. My grandma died, the bond issue failed, Trump was elected, Andrea was fired, the guy they hired to replace her made me feel stupid, and I ran unsuccessfully for the library board. I was demoted. It was a bad winter.

However, it was good in a way. It made me reassess my personal goals and to prove myself on my own without the shelter of Andrea, as good a mentor as she was. I ended up with a different position in the agency that worked to my strengths and helped build my CV. I also applied for and was accepted to the Economics Master’s Program at Roosevelt. At the time I was not sure of the answer to the question “What are you going to do with it?”, but I have been fortunate to work with peers and professors that made that question irrelevant as the act of studying and developing was reward in itself. The sad thing is it is almost over.

It does not have to be. I have gained the practical knowledge and experience with the MBA and almost a decade now at CSS. However, I want to do the practical impractical thing by going on to get a PhD. I have spent a good part of the last year thinking about this process, from asking professors to write letters for me to researching schools to convincing Anita that this is the thing to do. It is harder to think of making the move as a couple in our 30s than the choices I made in my early 20s. We both have careers. It is a potential hit to our finances. Nevertheless, I was sitting in a presentation at the URPE conference in October of 2018 and I realized that this was the scene I wanted to be a part of. It is not just the blogs and twitter, but real life. Importantly, I have both the learning and intellectual capacity to positively contribute to the community.

I write this now because I keep thinking back to one of my first blog posts I wrote back in 2013, which feels like a lifetime ago. It is short and titled “Don't get a PhD”.

 In it, I say:
I hear it's a waste of time.  Just prove you can do the math with an MA.  There's no reason to write a dissertation that no one will read.

Unless you got into MIT, Harvard, or the University of Chicago.

No matter what, at that point, you can be Megan McCardle.

I was wrong. Get a PhD. You only live once. Heck, I am still waiting on my responses from Harvard and Chicago. Send those applications out. The deadlines are getting close.






Monday, November 11, 2019

A Science at Its Limits: Criticizing the Most Recent Economics Nobel

Here's why I think there is some pushback against the most recent Nobel in economics. 

You go into the science wanting to make some sort of big difference.

You want to end poverty or make billionaires face a lower tax burden or make capitalism work however you think is optimal within your worldview.

But what RCTs do is show the limits of the science. You can design mechanisms so more people are protected from malaria through smart incentive structure on mosquito nets.

And it saves lives! Saving lives is good. But it feels small bore.

If that's ALL the science can do, it gives lie to the grand ambitions you enter in the science with. By awarding a Nobel to the practitioners of RCTs in development, it is an admission that the limits have been reached.

For me this is the same as the limits of behavioral economics. I consciously construct nudges for myself after years of reading in that subfield.

The question is what can you do with it if you can't necessarily replicate it and use irrational actors breaking micro assumptions as a foundation to build new theory on?

You can help people save more for retirement. And you can make sure men pee in the toilet. One big, another small. But are we at the limit there? Where do we go from here?

Friday, November 8, 2019

A Second Approach to a Statement of Purpose

Today, I want to talk a bit about my personal approach to economics. The scientist makes decisions too as human and as an analyst of the world. This choice for me shapes the idea that all economics are normative to a point. What you choose to look at and what you chose to leave out have huge influences on your conclusions. It is our job as scientists to recognize that the metaphors we use about the streetlamp or the blind men with an elephant have power because they show how our choices of what we analyze matter. For example, Housework is not part of the GDP because of decisions made decades ago, and now we talk about welfare gains from homemakers joining the workforce. Women worldwide do trillions in unpaid care work, yet that is not counted as market income so in many ways it does not count in our measures. We have to be aware of these sorts of choices in all that we do, knowing that the measures we have and the numbers produced are not neutral snapshots of the world.

That said, I am ambitious about positive change we can make in the world through our studies. Marx famously wrote: “The philosophers have only interpreted the world, in various ways; the point is to change it.” His words contain a tension that I feel. I want to change the world, but there is a first step. Before you go about changing the world, there is a lot that must be understood. We study the world as scientists, but we are not purely removed from the world, we are part of it. This interaction makes social sciences different from chemistry or physics. The object of study of our science is human beings. You can observe, theorize, and predict in all sciences but protons do not make decisions. Human beings do, and no matter the assumptions in our models, this makes the world hard to predict.

Though I have grand ambitions, I know we also have to be humble about the limitations of the methods of the science. For years, I had a quote from David Harvey as the header for my personal blog and Facebook pages: “We are, in fact, surrounded with dangerously oversimplistic monocausal explanations.” This remains an anchor for me as I try to understand the dynamics of the economic system that we live in. My current header quote walks the same path, telling readers “There is only one true answer to any economic question: “It depends”,” from Dani Rodrik. These two quotes illustrate my personal take-away from over a decade of studying the economy that everything is complicated and conditional in dynamic processes opposed to a simple linear causal process — a form of “first this, then that.” To me this boils down to a personal mantra: “It’s more complicated than that!”

My ambition has long been to study at the doctoral level and I am at the point in my career academically and professionally where everything has come together to make this a perfect time to realize my dreams. I come to this process through a circuitous route. Reading the rest of my application you will see the schools I went to prepare myself for more graduate work. I started in English and then turned to business and economics as I personally navigated the fallout of the crisis of 2008 and tried to understand just what had happened in a business cycle that I thought was solved. I completed my MBA and have two classes left for my Master’s in Economics, and I circled back and am working on finishing the MA in English I started but had not finished. Refocusing since the crisis has also made me a better student. Since 2010 all my grades have been A’s except for the one A- in the first class of the MBA sequence. The education has helped me professionally as I have learned to use data for my agency’s benefit to help make better business decisions.   Working on a PhD will be a sacrifice in terms of opportunity costs, but I am certain that it is the next step for me and I am experienced enough to be aware of some of the potential pitfalls. My eyes are open.

If I have one worry it is that my research interests are too broad. I first got interested in fiscal and monetary policy in a crisis, but I avidly study the economy from many angles from behavioralists to inequality to trade and development. I once joked that my personal program was in building up a coherent agent-based system from the ground up when economic actors break our micro-assumptions. More specifically, the papers I have written have explored working within the capitalistic context to mitigate inequities, the need to look at all the stakeholders within an economic system, arguing for higher minimum wages, exploring cooperative industrial organization, the potential for basic incomes, more relaxed immigration, and Rawlsian ethical framing to justify a change to the taxation system for local schools. I have also argued for a simpler financial system to lower the potential for crashes which have negative externalities and for international trade systems that do not impose developed country norms on developing countries. The interaction between the economic and the political spheres is key here as we examine how the world works and come to an understanding of how to change it. This speaks to my interests that I would like to explore in my doctoral studies, but at a greater analytical depth that has been available to me at Roosevelt in my current status as a part time student and full time worker. As much as I have thrived here, I am looking forward to moving to a bigger department and learning from a larger set of peers and mentors. I hope that it is at your school. If you let me in you will see that this is just the tip of who I am. I can tell you about Jeopardy when we meet face to face.

Monday, October 28, 2019

Some notes on trade in the uneven development of capitalism

So some of my key takeaways from the class are that trade is important, but perhaps oversimplified in the discourse (Gerber, Samuelson), but we also don’t want to overestimate how much trade happens, because the bulk of economic activity is within borders, and does not cross borders (Freeman), and then there is the thing that has really stuck with me on how convergence might just be a pipe dream (Pritchett) which happens because the powerful countries set the rules of the game for their benefit, which is incredibly hypocritical because the now developed countries used various forms of protection on their way up, and these are what the powerful are saying not to use (Chang, Jomo). As a side note, I have had read Chang before, but not the book on trade and I really liked his work going in. I’m glad that I read Marx on free trade, because I was unaware of the speech, and in a way, it frames Marx as an acceleration of a sort, wanting to bring forth free trade in that it hastens the global revolution. We can question the man’s teleological views in retrospect, since we have this spread of “free” trade but now in the most globalized world since Keynes was lamenting the fall of the last globalization in 1914, it feels like the global proletarian revolution is far away, even if it feels closer than ever in my lifetime. Like we got one chance and it only caught on in one country and we forgot just how adaptable capitalism was to the shift of geopolitical power relations. The other thing that is big for me that I must keep reminding myself is that capitalism and trade are not just things that exist in a vacuum. They are relationships of production, as Harvey reminds us Marx calls “Value in Motion”, and as relationships they involve people making choices (and as economic science reminds us these people making those choices are fully aware value maximizers) and we have to give these individual people the respect that they may be constrained by the current economic system, they all have agency – capitalism is not a thing but a person driven process. This comes up for me in Harvey talking about his concept of “accumulation by dispossession,” creating crises and coming along and picking up the pieces. He quotes Mellon as supposedly saying that the crises “return capital to their rightful owner”.

For me, a lot of the reading in this class reinforces my own priors that a lot of economic activity is driven by power relationships, and power is often financial power. I don’t know if you had the chance to see it, but there was a panel discussion recently with Larry Summers, Greg Mankiw, and Emmanuel Saez. They’re discussing the big new inequality book that was released and Summers is talking down to Saez who was claiming that wealth begat political power. Summers was asking for one example of where a wealth tax would limit that political power and Saez, to his discredit could not find one example off the top of his head – and there I was watching like I was watching a football match and someone missed an easy goal, in disbelief. To me it is self-evident that wealth and political power go hand in hand. In the American context there is a study recently by a pair from Princeton and Northwestern who examine stated political preferences at income levels and how the people in congress vote and you see that if congress votes for the preferences of the middle class, it is almost wholly incidental, and the wealthy’s preferences are almost an exact map over the actual votes. The crazy thing to me was that this was Larry Summers, a person who in his public service career helped shut down the CFTC from regulating derivatives around the turn of the century and then after the crisis hit that was formed in part from his decision not to regulate derivatives spent a good bit of the administration’s political capital in bailing out the banks. Now you tell me, Larry Summers, how wealth influences political power. I suppose it is like that saying that fish don’t think about water because that is the surroundings.

But this is important because it telescopes from the state level to the level of international relations. As I wrote in the answer to the second question, there is a power structure in place because of the time element. The economic ground is not played on by equally matched competitors (and that’s using a zero-sum framework), but there are teams that through training or history have more skills. Even worse, the teams that are better and have the more skills also are the ones that pick the game and employ the referees. If we were inventing the rules of the game today and everyone was starting from the same place, maybe a world of free trade might be the best way to start. But that ignores the very strong issue of path dependency. It is not just that the drawing of borders creates their own issues, as we have seen with a century of decolonization and the turmoil that has caused. But there is also the built infrastructure. I think this was in the development class, but there was an example of how linkages in terms of railroads and even the placement of cities were made such that they were built for the best use of the colonizers (I think Lenin hits on this a bit too), so that for example, the   Democratic Republic of the Congo, which is the 11th largest country in the world in terms of land area is ruled from a city that is relatively geographically distant from the bulk of the land area,      Kinshasa being the capitol and largest city, on a river near the western Atlantic coast. The country was developed to make all goods able to flow that way towards the city and thus onto the European nation that ruled them from even further abroad. The DRC could have been a linchpin in the development of continent, but instead was used as just another place where resources were extracted. Looking at that path of development, it gives credence to ideas of dependency and unequal exchange, where developing country economists looked at the path of development and noticed the same things I’m writing about here, with Raul Prebisch noting: “Given the existing international division of labor, in which the developed center countries produced manufactured goods for export to the periphery and the less-developed peripheral countries produced primary products for export to the center, all benefits of trade would accrue to the center and none to the periphery”. They saw the relationship as purely extractive, and even worse in that by opening their goods to the world market, we saw what they described as declining terms of trade. This is when because of the relative abundance of goods that are on the market, they decrease in price. When developing country goods decrease in price then the country just has to export more and more so that they can get that useful foreign currency so that they can buy capital goods and create an industry of their own, and this is problematic because as writers like Prebisch saw, the things that were produced were lower value commodities that could be replicated by other nations – an example here is RAM memory. It started out as a good thing to manufacture because there were high returns on it but as more countries tried to specialize in making computer memory chips, the same sort of problem returned  such that more and more things had to be produced to make the same amount of foreign capital in return.

What we see is some sort of conveyor belt – or is it a treadmill? The idea is that capitalism spread itself out, and by its existence it created this new form of circulation but whole countries exist now in this subordinated class position through accidents of history, living at an equilibrium where there are a lot of underutilized assets, there is not much internal savings, and there is a class of people who are relatively well-off but the structure of society is not incentivizing  moving the whole country up the value ladder, as Baran describes this dependency.  Between then and now, there have been some examples of countries that have moved up the ladder. Korea and Japan and now China worked their way up through manufacturing and heavy state control of various forms. This seems to be the key for development through trade: don’t open your borders to free trade until you are ready for it. Some protection is good, and we don’t do enough. We can see pitfalls in that by protecting too long you create industries that are hothouse flowers that cannot compete on their own in the world market, where with the example of the Indonesian Aircraft Industry, you can misallocate resources. So, it is being smart and being lucky. This comes back around to the idea that the rules of the game are tilted against developing countries. We talk about the amazing Chinese story, but they have also been strongly controlled by the one-party state, a party that subverted many of the WTO recommendations right up to and even after being granted most favored nation status. One way to develop is to break the rules.

The question still lingers in if we can count these countries that have achieved growth as developed countries. I forget which of our authors made this point, but what happens once we start making all sorts of ad hoc taxonomies is that the demarcation points start to lose all meaning. Do we create a middle category and put them there? How much do we learn about the process of development by creating a certain set of criteria and then looking to see if a country fits the criteria or not? The problem with economics at a global scale is that there are only 200 countries and that’s really a small enough n it is hard to find patterns to generalize from. Each case goes through history as a special case with their own histories and contexts it’s easy to throw up your hands and say you have to talk about general cases, or even worse like the unbridled free trade enthusiast you just take one set of rules and say it applies everywhere and always at all time no matter what.

The ultimate question is how you make sure the world system exists and operates in an equitable and just manner, and here is where I must throw up my hands again. I’ll tie this together by looking at product cycle theory that Gerber introduces. The idea starts close to the source of economic power and once it is established as a thing then it can move away and then there is heavy production until a new idea comes along and then it is disseminated in the same way (Gerber 76). I see this as a flow here to there but as it is generalized there is no one place that is the center and there is no one place that is the periphery. It makes me go back to David Harvey on the crises of capitalism, where there are multiple points of contradiction. The thing is that the contradiction is never resolved for Harvey. Instead it is moved around. So as long as there is capitalism there will still be this flow from the center to the outside and then back around again. I think we will just see it move geographically as China or Korea becomes the center, then we can see Ethiopia be the workshop to the world. What we will continue to see even if there is absolute development so that all countries reach a level of development that is comparable to the western level of development today, there will still be relatively large gulfs between the most developed countries and those who worked on catching up. And all of this is dependent on not hitting ceilings on resource constraints or some sort of ecological catastrophe before that point is reached. As a natural pessimist, I am waiting for the end of the world in my lifetime before we will ever see the end of capitalism. In the short term though, I see Rodrik’s trilemma as being incredibly powerful as an explanatory device for the limits on the reach of the integrated world system – and these limits come back to the uneven development and perceived inequity in the capitalist relations. No one wants to share, and everyone believes their endowments come by some sort of divine right.   

Works Consulted:

Gerber, James. International Economics. Pearson, 2014.

 Myint, H., “The ‘Classical Theory’ of International Trade and the Underdeveloped Countries,” Economic Journal, 68(270), 317-337, June 1958.

Prasch, R. 1996. “Reassessing the theory of comparative advantage,” Review of Political Economy 8(1).

Samuelson, Paul, “International Trade and the Equalization of Factor Prices,” Economic Journal, 58(230), 163-184, 1948.

Deraniyagala, S., and Fine, Ben, “New Trade Theory Versus Old Trade Policy: A Continuing Enigma,” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 25, 809-825, 2001.


Freeman, Richard, “Trade Wars: The Exaggerated Impact of Trade in Economic Debate,” NBER working paper 10000, 2003.

Pritchett, Lant, “Forget Convergence: Divergence Past, Present, and Future,” Finance and Development, 33(2), 1996.

Chang, Ha-Joon, “Once Industrialized, Preach Free Trade”, South Bulletin 40, July 30, 2002.

Jomo, K. S., “Globalisation for Whom? A World for All.” 

Marx, K. and F. Engels. “Bourgeois and Proletarians.”
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Brewer, A.  “Baran”
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Brewer, A.  “Emmanuel and Unequal Exchange”

Wade, Robert Hunter, “What Strategies are Viable for Developing Countries Today? The World Trade Organization and the Shrinking of ‘Development Space,” Review of International Political Economy, 10(4), 621-644, 2003.
Rodrik, D. 2002. “Feasible Globalizations,” NBER 9129
Milberg, W. 2004. “The changing structure of trade linked to global production systems: what are the policy implications?”

Harvey, D. “New Imperialism.”
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“GDP” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) Accessed 10.27.2019




“Robinson Crusoe” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robinson_Crusoe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robinson_Crusoe Accessed 10.27.2019

“South Sudan” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sudan Accessed 10.26.2019